The fact that these glaciers are located in deep bays may well remove them from general circumpolar current circulation, but maybe not from the deeper N-S THC. And it says WAIS would raise the sea 200', but that is the total for the whole continent melting! It is the nearly frictionless boundary between ice and a skater’s blades, created by the water interface, that allows a skater to move so effortlessly. Kip, Rather less than a wee, actually. I’d speculate that the result would be to bring on another mini ice age before any catastrophic SLR would result. © 2020 CIRES is a partnership of NOAA and the University of Colorado Boulder. The entire glacier on land has significant friction at the base. Both are excellent places to see how glacial landforms are created. Nope…raising taxes to impoverish us all. Doesn’t mean the climate is changing. The heat gets taken down there, starts circling in the cold and bleeds off to space. It is just so silly that we human beings even worry about those glaciers. Thus, an important factor for the Rignot “unstoppable collapse” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is based on a false premise. But in any case, even Hongju Yu’s worst case conclusion only minimally adds to expected sea level rise  of about 12 inches ( other opinions vary but possible values over 2 feet are extremely unlikely) by 2100. But they can change the weather of the whole planet to *Persistently Perfect* , which of course happens to mean cold as the Little Ice Age, and they can do it no problem and toot sweet, if we skeptics shut our yaps , and we all vote for the two stupidest morons in government and just let them handle it. The controversy has spawned articles such as “What to Believe in Antarctica’s Great Ice Debate”, written by freelance science journalist, which  says “In 2015 a study was published claiming that East Antarctica is in fact gaining mass, contrary to the majority of studies conducted thus far” [the study was done in 2015 but published in 2017] but fails to mention that the study is from Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, which was published on Oct. 30 2017 in the Journal of Glaciology and which is still headlined on the NASA website. Thank you. Not fight it…tackle it! Note that before he gets off on his flying buttresses that he shows a cross section of the ice shelf and makes the valid point that that a key to the behavior of the shelf ice is the grounding line where there is actually some friction. During this period, global-averaged sea level rose about 23 cm, with an average rate of rise of about 1.6 mm/yr over the 20th Century.’ The volcanic/geothermal heat cause of melting of the Pine and Thwaites glaciers was documented in several publications half a dozen years ago, but you will never see any reference to them in the scare papers put out by some engineers who obviously don’t know anything about glacier physics. Ya got yerself a good BS-O-Meter there The 91+ volcanoes are scattered along the rift zone spanning the entire coast of West Antarctica. The highest geothermal heat fluxes, though, lie under the frozen “headwaters” of Thwaites. Thanks for the lead-in. I think the shelves are called A and B because they are on either side of a major island, and it breaks off either side of it now and then, clearly because of the island. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet makes up only about 8% of Antarctic ice, and the Pine Island glacier makes up only about 10% of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. An alternative hypothesis that should be considered is that it was the accelerating glaciers that were responsible for the Larsen B shelf to detach. Alarmist malarkey and extreme lying like this Newsweek crappola blend together in their minds, and no one in their circle of trusted so-called "experts", who are the only ones they even pay vague attention to, ever clarifies anything…instead they reinforce it. International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, Motorists face £700 billion bill for going electric. I don’t think Thwaites holds 10ft of SLR potential, but using that number and USGS stated 260ft total ice mass SLR potential, Thwaites holds ~4% of global ice mass. A complete collapse of the Thwaites Glacier could significantly affect global sea levels, according to scientists. NASA supports a variety of  views —  1) NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses ;   2) Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise was mitigated by snowfall ;  3) Ramp-up in Antarctic ice loss speeds sea level rise. No matter what the cause of their northerly travel, when surface waters reach the Arctic, they sink. Again, the key to buttressing should be the absence of tension cracks. SciAmer appears to go to layout 30 days in advance of the Publication, as Ads close more “Thwaites glacier has 91 volcanoes beneath it or near it.” icisil February 16, 2020 at 6:57 am writes: “The 91+ volcanoes are scattered along the rift zone spanning the entire coast of West Antarctica.” The guardian newspaper referred to by somebody states: Must have been using exponential notation, eh? here, here and here). And the third claims   “Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone”. Don’t worry about what they call you.” – Andrew Breitbart | read more, “…the world’s most viewed climate website” The study of the Antarctic is a valid scientific endeavor – but not if its only purpose is to attempt to raise more and more alarm about climate change. So where is the energy to come from to support these scenarios? The Thwaites story is part of the ongoing controversy over Antarctic ice gain/loss that has been being fought in the journals for the last five or ten years. It is frigidly cold there, far below freezing even in Summer. Wunsch’s website also includes a useful reference book. Uncertainty in the amount and spatial pattern of geothermal flux and melting beneath this glacier is a major limitation in predicting its future behavior and sea level contribution. Irrelevant. clearly timed? However, the BBC’s latest report (and here) does not mention an important fact that is widely known and that it and others have reported previously – the influence of active volcanoes beneath the glacier. Over the past 30 years, the amount of ice flowing out of the region has nearly doubled, and computer models show that over the next several decades, the glacier may lose ice even more rapidly. The Battle for the Truth about Global Warming, “…invaluable” – Steven F. Hayward, The Weekly Standard, “…changed the world and is one of the most influential resources on global warming. If the rate of wastage at the terminus increases, the terminus will move up-slope. It lacks power and has no influence on the surface water current circulation – which is 100% wind-driven. This is utter and total nonsense! Most of the ice sheet is more than 6000 ft (2000 m) thick and in places, reaches up to 10,000 ft (3000 m) thick. Actually if the whole West Antarctic ice sheet would melt, it would only raise the sea level by about 11 feet. Despite our influences we have always lived in a natural world that is changing constantly and by itself. All of Antarctica including WAIS adds <200' Whoever wrote this obviously does not understand the physics of glaciers. (2014) also infer that the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet will soon disappear, resulting in a sea level rise of up to 10 ft. We don’t really understand the dynamics involved with Antarctic glaciers yet – what makes them speed up and slow down. The ice is mostly more than 2500 m (8000 ft) thick, so the ice sheet will not float in 1000 m (3300 ft) of water nor will sea water melt its way under the ice. We calibrate a von Mises calving law with Haynes Glacier, which does not have an ice shelf. Developed gills Further, this told me early on that Kip really doesn’t follow the science as everyone knows McIntyre It isn’t generally appreciated that an ice sheet can have a dominant direction of movement, but at ground levels may be moving in all compass directions. New Sights in the Second Field Season of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration April 15, 2020 From the ITGC. But they can’t say anything about that – the people wouldn’t panic. /sarc. The position of the terminus of a glacier is governed by the rate of accumulation of snow and ice in the upper part of a glacier and the rate of melting or calving near its terminus. Most of the ice sheet is much thicker (2500 m [8000 ft]) than the depth of the subglacial floor below sea level (1000 m [3300 ft]), so the ice will not float and sea water will not extend under the ice. Yuppers, thatoughtadoit, alrighty! Several media pieces have followed up on a study about the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. OK, Steve Mosher, so it was 4 days before the paper went ONLINE, not 4 days before it was physically published. Yeah I would love to see the source of the 200 ft claim because if you melted every bit of ice on the entire planet you get 240 foot, that is the max sea level rise actually possible without crust restructuring. They cannot count votes, cannot stop single drop of rain or warm up a single hard freeze by a degree, no…no they cannot, and they will not claim to be able to. 2. ;-\. WIRED's January cover story is taking readers to Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier. Cheers. Thank you Sir, for confirming what I have been arguing with the local green nutters for years- I began to doubt my sanity! The urgency stems from observations and analyses showing that the amount of ice flowing from Thwaites—and contributing to sea level rise—has doubled in the span of three decades. The last link is convenient but the data ends in 2016. Undersea volcanoes at West Antarctic coastline: If we constrain the energy to melt the ice to the top 100ft of ocean water, the ocean water temp would have to decrease by 22.5°C. The Bagley ice field is a beautiful sight in southern Alaska, second largest in North America. tty But calling it a “Doomsday” glacier is unjustified and simply doom-mongering. Also, he isn’t saying what you think he is saying. Plenty here to speculate with. and the Caribbean where those mad dogs and Englishmen ventured- QED! I bring up Zwally and the other two studies just to show that there is a controversy about Antarctic ice mass in general, and that as usual in CliSci, anyone daring to arrive at findings counter to the disaster narrative is attacked and denigrated. Besides the stupid 200 ft claim which is clearly wrong because you get a max 240ft sea level melting every bit of ice on the planet some of the time frames are actually funny. All of WAIS melting adds <12 feet. You say “stuffed up”, but I think that’s pretty (actually, un-pretty) harsh given how your “side” defend real stuff-ups. Michael Mann, Editor at Large. P.S. blogs and responded to in 2016. The atmosphere below 2.5km would have to decrease by ~290°C to provide the energy to melt that ice mass. And there is nothing ‘buttressing’ it on the slope. Dust, changes in cloudiness, altered wind flows and hence altered heat and moisture flows…these all must have had a role. to a published street date. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is NOT collapsing, the retreat of these small glaciers is NOT caused by global Then, after perhaps a couple of hundred years of storing these data some bright fellow can perhaps draw some really useful conclusions about the behaviour of glaciers and their likely effect on global sea levels. tty ==> You must be new to Climate Science….. Wot, like CO2? They do sometimes reappear in the same places, probably because of sea-floor configuration, but not regularly. So, I have no doubt that the rifts in Antarctica are producing a very high heat flow, to include geothermal springs below the ice fields. Scientists have found the giant Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is melting from the inside and believe they now know why. The effects of climate change are outpacing scientific predictions, driven in part, scientists say, by soaring levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”. This is Climate Scientology, remember! And a continent sized ice mountain two miles high must have deflected the jet streams. I find it appalling that these sorts of alarmist papers make it through peer review. If Antarctica gets the extra precipitation the models predict, in a warming world, the sea level may well drop. Apart from that, the hypothesis that shelves like Thwaites ‘buttress’ the flow of the land ice into the sea is just that, an unproven hypothesis. Terri ==> The generally accepted view is the the Thwaites ice shelf is being affected by “warm” water from below, thinning the ice shelf and leading to its more rapid break up at the leading edge — this relatively warm water is called Circumpolar Deepwater, shown in the diagram in the essay. BUT ! “2 FEET — “By the end of the century, the oceans could rise at least 2 feet over 2005 levels,”, 650 MILLION UNDER WATER – “…by the end of the century more than 650 million people will be living on land that is under water” — Michael Mann”. I was just working on those numbers. You said: “I wonder if any of them have even determined the temp of all that ice, and how much the ocean would cool if enough ice was dumped into it to raise sea level 10′?”. So it begs the question why does MSM report and some climate scientists push a number that is beyond fanciful. What happens when a glacier runs into another accumulation of ice? The map in the link below shows the maximum Pleistocene glaciation – the 20 (not 18) KA BP Wisconsinan maximum extent was considerably smaller, particularly in the Brooks range:, NOAA’s 2016 list of 375 long term trend tide stations: . Do you know when the story was filed? Hey, that’s not fair! – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright © 2006-2019, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. That’s a lot of scary talk. We are told Antarctica is gaining ice mass but its threat of melting is causing sea levels to rise? Antarctic sea ice may not cap carbon emissions as much as previously thought, Emperor penguin numbers rise as biologists petition for IUCN Red List upgrade, Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-104.98,554/loc=-102.943,-89.573, And then there are the periods of sudden changes that just as suddenly reversed…the D.O. Thwaites Glacier accounts for one-third of the mass loss from the ASE.” Scientists discovered the hole thanks to Italian and German satellites, as well as NASA’s Operation IceBridge, a program that since 2010 has used ice-penetrating radar aboard aircraft flying over Antarctica to study connections between polar regions and global climate. Best we can muster when it comes to world altering events is it was kind of chilly in Omaha last night. There are many opinions. The importance of ice thickness is that virtually all of the ice sheet is considerably thicker than the depth below sea level to bedrock, so the ice is grounded and will not float. “After the team had collated the results, it reported a staggering 91 previously unknown volcanoes, adding to the 47 others that had been discovered over the previous century of exploring the region.”. Thwaites Glacier is largely based well below sea level, as is the case for large parts of the West Antarctic ice shield, a fact that contributes to its lack of stability. Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier is melting, thanks to warming waters from below., But you do get the drift the CSIRO were on the right track with their 1.6mm estimate of global SLR for the 20th Century with that quote- Hey if you use it as the “right temperature” and Krig the areas around it you will be surprised how big you can get the hotspot ”. The assertion that maritime glaciers will ‘slide into the sea’ if shelf ice at their terminus no longer ‘holds back’ the rest of the glacier. It’s tuned well against the Thanks. The two modeling studies, PROPHET and DOMINOS are shown as open circles in orange. 1019-1036 iii. If that part of the glacier melts tomorrow it would not add as much as a micron to sealevel. ***650 MILLION UNDER WATER – “…by the end of the century more than 650 million people will be living on land that is under water” — Michael Mann***. When ice shelves lose mass, they can’t ‘hold back’ inland glaciers from flowing toward the sea.” Apparently he believes that the terminal area of the glacier acts like a dam, “holding back” the rest of the glacier, and if it is removed, the glacier will essentially slide into the sea. They want us way up in the cheap seats to shut the hell up now. Gondwanaland with its tide gauges is obviously floating up with the dire Antarctic ice melt and warming expanding seas methinks as who could doubt the venerable IPCC with 5mm average a year? 6. The slower surging is typically interspersed with quiescent periods. How can so many people be so easily convinced that events which have always occurred and are extensively documented, are in fact wholly new and unprecedented? Two of them are about total sea level rise, not the part of the sea level rise that would result from melting of the Thwaites glacier. They did not consider geothermal heat as a possible cause. published in Geophysical Research Letters. At the terminus, the ice is often thin enough that it is responding in a brittle manner. Kip, when I click on the link, what pops up is “Full-Stokes modeling of grounding line dynamics, ice melt and iceberg calving for Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica” he cant get the dates right, I dont trust him to get the science right. Public money should not be spent on any glacier research yet. A common tactic used by alarmists is to make vague statements such as “the glacier will accelerate without the ice shelf buttressing it.” These comments are then quickly followed by stating scary facts, such as the glacier holds enough ice to raise sea level by 10 feet. Geothermal flux is one of the most dynamically critical ice sheet boundary conditions. I agree with your comments about the friction at the base of the glacier and the other comments about glaciers surging. The Deepwater Circulation has several drivers – of which the thermohaline effect is just one. 7. The whole of the work of the lowlifes in this field are actually dedicated to making everyone stupid and scared fools! Despite repeated assertions of Antarctic ice melt and glacier collapse, the sea level record does not show discernible effects – global sea levels still rising at their centuries long 2-3 mm per year as the Earth climate warms from the Little Ice Age. There have been many recent reports concerning the increasing focus on Thwaites glacier and the uncertainties and projections have been deftly handled. That’s a false premised every glaciologist knows that where a glacier terminates is determined by its mass balance between the amount of accumulation of new ice every year and the amount of ice loss by melting or calving. “We think that possibly in a few years or decades, we don’t know yet, the remainder of the ice shelf in front of Thwaites might be gone,” explained Hongju Yu, an assistant specialist at the University of California, Irvine and lead author of the new study. This supports the hypothesis that heterogeneous geothermal flux and local magmatic processes could be critical factors in determining the future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. In a paper titled “Widespread, Rapid Grounding Line Retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011,” Rignot et al. Our simulations suggest that removing the ice shelf abruptly does not have a long-lasting impact on the retreat and cumulative mass loss of the glacier. That is the reason for any melting. The true reason that NE Asia was not glaciated, is it was too close to the Gobi desert. Smart Rock The Jim Hansen standard is to impose/share that heat over 1,200 kilometers. In the late Fall and early Winter, when the sea-ice refreezes, salty brine is produced as a by-product of freezing salt water. The melt rate of West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier is an important concern, because this glacier alone is currently responsible for about 1 percent of global sea level rise. Mosher ==> I stand corrected — but the Scientific American piece was clearly timed to appear simultaneously (in fact, four days before), the online publishing, which would bring it into the public view once more. The Saint, In short, I have not seen any evidence for huge sea level rises in the post interglacial warming era (in the last 10,000 years). Conversely, we find that a buoyancy driven calving law does not influence the retreat by more than 20% and ice front melt by the ocean modulates the retreat by 15% to 50%, with the highest increase associated with a maximum thermal forcing of 4°C. It did Yes, I have noticed for years that either the people being alarmist over Antarctic ice and glaciers do not seem to know much about the subject of glaciers, or much about Antarctica. bernie1815 ==> Overall, I have a pretty good record at getting a response — but not always the one I hope for. 700 billion litres, the same thing, is an impressive way to present. TIME is a study of how the boundary of the glacier evolves, and what the differences are between the slow-moving ice and underlying rock outside the glacier is versus the interior. and published ONLINE July 10th 2017. {Recent storms have trashed the main road into Mt. Thwaites Glacier covers 74,000 square miles—an area the size of Florida—and is particularly susceptible to climate and ocean changes. I think that this whole “buttressing” issue is another acorn falling on the head of Chicken Little. According to Rigot, an electrical engineer, “Warm ocean currents and geographic peculiarities have helped kick off a chain reaction at the Amundsen Sea-area glaciers, melting them faster than previously realized and pushing them ‘past the point of no return’.The system [becomes] a chain reaction that is unstoppable, [with] every process of retreat feeding the next one.The glacial retreat there appears unstoppable.” Curiously, Rignot asserts that “heat makes the grounding line retreat inland, leaving a less massive ice shelf above. As I often point out, numbers are the first thing the marxist-propagandists manipulate. You said, “It would be distinctly unusual for the cause to come after the effect.” My point exactly! No, but the topography seems to be important. Personally I think it is nonsense. Did you do any checking? ”. However, as Newton observed, a mass in motion will continue at the same velocity unless acted upon by some outside force. Polynyas I think would be an example of that. I’ve been to within about 100 yards of the ice front there, where chunks of ice were falling from the roof of the tunnel. By the end of the century, the oceans could rise at least 2 feet over 2005 levels, according to a 2018 study in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science. Thwaites Glacier . All of the forecasters of “unstoppable collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet” assume that recent accelerated ice flow and calving has been caused by melting from warm sea water beneath the ice. According to the IPCC, the sea level will rise 9-88 centimetres in the next 100 years, with a mid-estimate rise of 50 centimetres. Now, a new study finds that these subglacial volcanoes and other geothermal "hotspots" are contributing to the melting of Thwaites Glacier, a major river of ice that flows into Antarctica's Pine Island Bay. Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica NASA/OIB/Jeremy Harbeck First published on January 31, 2019 / … That’s one of the very few funny commercials. Conversely, the wind-driven surface water current system *does* have a significant effect as one of the other drivers of the deepwater circulation. Or at least, the current knowledge attributes Thwaites melting is due to warm water from circumpolar currents. Most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies SE of the Pine Island glacier and at its SW margin is about 1000 miles from the Pine Island and Thwaites outlet glaciers. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration is performing some magnificent science, conducting the most ambitious fieldwork ever undertaken at the tip of what is one of the most significant glaciers on Earth. Clyde, It radically cools the Earth, so it must be the one thing that gets rid of the world’s “excess” heat. Isn’t it remarkable how “selective” the circumpolar deepwater is! 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